Dolphins vs. Patriots odds, prediction, betting ideas for Week 17

The Dolphins (8-7) journey to wet Foxboro this weekend to tackle the division-rival Patriots (7-8) at Gillette Stadium in an AFC East conflict with main playoff implications. We’ve all of the betting odds, tendencies, storylines, ideas, and predictions to get you absolutely ready to wager on this huge divisional tilt. 

Miami coach Mike McDaniel is likely to be remixing some old-school U2 going into this one, singing “I am unable to dwell…with or with out Tua” along with his star QB Tua Tagovailoa probably sidelined after being positioned in concussion protocol. In the meantime, New England coach Invoice Belichick could possibly be singing “Sunday Bloody Sunday” after two consecutive gut-wrenching losses that got here all the way down to the bitter finish. One factor’s for certain: ‘Every thing modifications…on New Yr’s Day!”

Two weeks in the past towards Vegas, Patriots lead again Rhamondre Stevenson started a puzzling lateral sequence that resulted in a game-winning Chandler Jones fumble restoration and landing. Then final week, Stevenson coughed the ball up within the pink zone towards the Bengals down by 4 late within the fourth. Tensions have been excessive amongst the Patriots’ fanbase and New England’s sports activities radio circuit, and even second-year QB Mac Jones has voiced his frustrations of late. Now, ongoing chatter has hinted at Invoice O’Brien supplanting Matt Patricia as the pinnacle of the Pats’ offense. 

There aren’t any questions as to who will name the Dolphins’ offense for the foreseeable future. The addition of McDaniel and Professional Bowl wideout Tyreek Hill to an offense that already loved Jaylen Waddle has turned this Miami offense right into a weekly juggernaut, a top-10 scoring offense with the fifth-most complete yards. However the ‘Phins have misplaced 4 straight and may have their arms full in enemy territory, particularly if Tagovailoa fails to clear the protocol and the climate situations have an effect on Teddy Bridgewater and Miami’s passing sport. New England ranks fifth in scoring protection and eighth in complete protection and has pressured six turnovers over the previous three weeks.

WEEK 17 NFL PICKS: Towards the Unfold | Straight up

This can be a textbook instance of stud offense vs. upper-echelon protection, however the chance of Bridgewater beginning for Tua makes it about as shut as it could actually get odds-wise. Let’s dive head-first into this one, checking the percentages, storylines, tendencies, ideas, and our remaining rating prediction. 

MORE NFL: Week 17 Energy Rankings

Dolphins at Patriots odds for NFL Week 17

Odds courtesy of Sports activities Interplay.

  • Unfold: Patriots -2.5 (-110); Dolphins +2.5 (-110)
  • Whole: OVER 42 (-110); UNDER 42 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Patriots -149; Dolphins +124

This seems to be like virtually the identical betting odds as Patriots-Bengals final week besides Cincinnati was the -150 favourite and New England the +126 underdog. The over/beneath in that one: 41.5. That is December soccer in Foxboro for ya. Cincinnati prevailed (simply barely) 22-18, with the Pats squandering a late-game alternative with horrible ball management for the second-straight week.

This unfold has been utterly swayed by the Tagovailoa concussion information. The Patriots had been +2.5 underdogs on the lookahead line, however the unfold went “free falling” early this week (properly, it isn’t U2, however it’s a ’90s hit!). The over/beneath additionally noticed a slight shift, going from 43.5 to 42. For full line motion particulars as much as the minute, try BetQL

Reap the benefits of BetQL’s 3-day free trial and see all of our greatest bets throughout all sports activities, together with faculty soccer, NFL, and MLB!

Dolphins vs. Patriots all-time sequence

The Dolphins and Patriots have confronted off a whopping 114 instances, with Miami main the all-time matchup 60-54. The Dolphins have received 4 consecutive conferences and 5 of the previous six since Tom Brady left New England for the Buccaneers. The Pats went 25-13 towards the Dolphins throughout the Tom Brady dynasty period. New England fell to Miami 20-7 once they met in South Seaside earlier this season, with Belichick’s squad turning the ball over 3 times. 

Dolphins at Patriots: Three tendencies to know

— The Patriots are 3-1 towards the unfold as a house favourite this season, whereas Miami is simply 3-5 ATS on the street. 

— The OVER has hit in simply six of New England’s 15 video games this season and in simply seven of Miami’s video games. Three of the Pats’ previous 4 video games and 6 of their previous eight have gone UNDER. 

— Miami had 4 turnovers in its Week 16 loss to the Packers, the sixth time McDaniels’ squad has dedicated a number of turnovers in a sport this season. The Dolphins are 1-5 throughout these six video games, with the one win coming again in mid-September at Baltimore. 

MORE WEEK 17 NFL: Odds, traces, spreads

Dolphins at Patriots: Three issues to look at

Can New England’s offense get out of its rut?

The Patriots offense has been stagnant — typically downright torpid — with Jones beneath middle and Patricia calling performs. Over its previous 9 video games, New England has didn’t eclipse 18 factors 4 instances and failed to achieve 11 factors twice. It additionally has 5 video games with 70 or fewer dashing yards in that span, which resulted in 4 losses and one win. The Pats have the fourth-fewest first downs within the NFL, in addition to the fifth-shortest common drive time. They must be higher this week, as Miami operates probably the greatest passing offenses within the NFL.

Will Teddy Bridgewater maintain Miami from sinking?

The destiny of the Dolphins’ group could possibly be in Bridgewater’s arms, with Tagovailoa recovering from his second (or possibly third) concussion. Numerous ‘Phins followers have to be having dangerous flashbacks to 2016 when Ryan Tannehill went down towards the tip of the season and Miami finally misplaced to Pittsburgh within the first spherical of the playoffs. Miami had speaking heads discussing its standing as a Tremendous Bowl contender only a handful of Sundays in the past; now the soccer world is questioning if it could actually even make it to the dance. Bridgewater might want to step it up large time, because the Dolphins have but to win a sport this season not began by Tua. Additionally they have didn’t beat a profitable group since Week 3, and their lack of ability to get the working sport going has been an enormous issue. Jeff Wilson Jr. has been coping with a hip damage, whereas Raheem Mostert has battled some knee points. That is lots of query marks towards a stout Belichick protection. 

Can New England begin executing late in shut video games?

The Patriots have been unusually mistake-prone late in video games over the previous couple of weeks. Two weeks in the past, they lateraled themselves right into a loss on the finish of a tied sport in regulation as an alternative of simply going into time beyond regulation. Final week, they had been within the pink zone needing a TD to win, however Stevenson put the ball on the bottom for the third time this season. New England followers are usually not used to seeing their group fumble and bumble down the stretch. Belichick often will get his squad so as and executing correctly in essential conditions. Possibly the Pats can flip issues round towards a shaky Miami protection that ranks bottom-six in scoring protection, passing yards allowed, TDs allowed, and takeaways. 

Dolphins at Patriots: Stat that issues

1-5. That is New England’s document when it fails to achieve 98 dashing yards. Stevenson’s working mate, Damien Harris (thigh), has been missed, because the Pats operated a run-first offensive scheme that has largely fallen flat since he began lacking time within the second half of the season. New England has averaged 99.6 floor yards in video games wherein Harris has been inactive this season and 114.5 floor yards when he has performed. Miami has allowed 130.5 dashing yards per street sport. 

Dolphins at Patriots: Prediction

Whereas Hill and Waddle stay essentially the most explosive large receiver duo in soccer, they’ve been largely held in examine when Tagovailoa has been sidelined. Belichick may have his protection prepared for this one, possible using a bend-but-don’t-break technique with the electrical playmakers. We see Jones and the Pats offense doing simply sufficient to get by the pesky ‘Phins, with Stevenson getting himself out of the doghouse with a robust dashing efficiency. We are going to control the damage report all week, but it surely will not be “profitable time” till Miami can get again to “Tua Time.” Simply do not go betting the Pats -2.5. Miami has coated six consecutive spreads when the projected complete sits between 42.5 and 45 factors. 

PREDICTION: Patriots 24, Dolphins 23. New England wins however Miami covers (+2.5), and the sport cruises to the OVER (42.5).

Leave a Comment