Maintain on, now. I do know what you’re considering. You watched final week’s TNF, checked out tonight’s groups, and checked to see when you had different issues to do. However this recreation carries a bit extra fantasy intrigue. Plus, each groups have lesser expectations, so there’s much less rigidity. It may very well be enjoyable!
Carson Wentz can excel when afforded a clear pocket. Justin Fields appears to be like like he could also be approaching as a passer. There are even a few fringe fantasy choices price contemplating.
However first, let’s take a look at the matchup from a big-picture perspective.
Two ‘Show-It’ Quarterbacks Collide in NFC Showdown
It’s odd to suppose Fields has to show himself in his second yr. All of us noticed his rookie season. However a brand new regime invitations new plans. And Fields doesn’t essentially need to be a part of these plans. Their strikes this offseason intimated as a lot. Regardless, his growth is the fulcrum for what occurs subsequent. Not less than he can nonetheless create underneath duress:
Watching Fields within the open discipline is enjoyable, however the necessity of his magic brings a little bit of disappointment into the combo. Per Professional Soccer Focus, he’s tied for probably the most scrambles of any quarterback. In different phrases, his highlights doubtless aren’t by design. And whereas the short response is to level to Chicago’s personnel, among the blame has to go to the quarterback.
Fields has the slowest common time to throw at 3.35 seconds. In the meantime, the Bears offensive line is eighth in cross block win price. One thing doesn’t add up right here. Furthermore, he has the second-highest strain price amongst all starters. So, I’m betting we’ll see extra of him making an attempt to navigate by means of visitors.
Washington’s defensive entrance is fifth in strain price and fifth in dashing EPA allowed. Nevertheless, their secondary is a piece in progress. Three of their 5 opponents have had multi-passing landing outcomes. The Commanders haven’t compelled an interception since Week 1.
Fields may shine as a passer tonight. He’s made some enhancements, and Washington’s protection might give him a much-needed confidence booster. Hopefully, their offense additionally exhibits as much as power a aggressive match.
However what about Carson Wentz?
Robert hit the nail on the pinnacle right here. For sure, Wentz has been inconsistent underneath heart. However take a look at when these inconsistencies have cropped up. Philadelphia dunked on him in Week 3, and Dallas confirmed him an identical quantity of affection the next Sunday. Each groups are top-10 in dropback EPA allowed. Wentz is identical man, simply in a Commanders’ uniform.
However we fantasy managers can nonetheless use Wentz tonight. Chicago is seventh in strain price however has the ninth-lowest adjusted sack price. On the identical time, Wentz hasn’t been a whole catastrophe underneath strain. Exterior of Weeks 3 and 4, he’s seventh in on-target price with none interceptions.
The long-term viability of Wentz as Washington’s starter could also be up for debate if issues go south. However for tonight, the offense has the runway to carry out properly. Terry McLaurin has my eye this night and will probably be considered one of my factors of curiosity as Week 6 kicks off.
Factors of Curiosity in TNF
Apart from Ron Rivera casting stones at his quarterback, I don’t really feel the identical anxiousness within the air tonight as I did in Week 5. So, I can give attention to a few key elements of every offense with long-term fantasy impacts. As an example, I could have been out on the aforementioned Fields too early.
Justin Fields Test-In Time
I gave Fields a cross in his season opener. Chicago received, however he solely dropped again to cross 23 occasions within the rain. After which the losses got here in back-to-back style.
By means of Week 3, he had simply 45 makes an attempt. Tom Brady’s thrown 52 occasions in consecutive weeks. Fields’ unbelievably excessive sack price and turnovers have been sufficient to have me fearful about his season and profession. However he might have turned a nook.
Fields’ baseline metrics have steadily risen since Week 3. Admittedly, they’re not nice, however I’ll take a optimistic pattern once I can. A part of the advance is his trusting the scheme and his teammates. His completion share on play-action passes for the primary three weeks was ranked thirty first regardless of working it on the fifth-highest price. He didn’t miss a throw off play motion in Week 5. And everyone knows what he may be as a rusher.
Josh Allen is the one quarterback with the next compelled missed sort out price than Fields. He has three fewer explosive runs than Jalen Hurts, who leads all passers with 12. Continued progress as a thrower is strictly what we have to see from a younger quarterback on a rebuilding group. With Washington’s woes on protection, we must always get one other glimpse of his headway tonight.
The place’s Scary Terry?
Wentz is high 5 in passing yards and touchdowns. In concept, I purchase it. His supporting forged is healthier than it was on the Colts, and he’s eighth in cross price over anticipated. Nevertheless, Terry McLaurin’s middling function within the (doubtless short-lived) “Wentz resurgence” is a troublesome promote. Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas missed final week, and the recently-extended receiver was third in targets. However I don’t suppose it’s his fault.
I don’t suppose I’ll get a lot pushback on the concept McLaurin’s their finest receiver. Nevertheless, as their finest, it’s pushed him to the surface at a career-high price of 68.9%. No different pass-catcher on the group can persistently acquire separation or power coverages to honor the boundary like McLaurin.
Because of this, he’s reliant on unstable targets from Wentz. Plus, his red-zone participation has hit an all-time low. For now, he’s simply one other man within the offense.
McLaurin does lead all Washington starters in air yard share. And Washington has the ninth-most passing makes an attempt when within the crimson zone. It might take time, however McLaurin’s expertise shouldn’t relegate him to being a solely tertiary possibility for Wentz.
However Don’t Bench These Guys
Tonight begins our first week coping with groups on bye. Accidents might have compelled your hand during the last couple of weeks, however our decisions are much more restricted in Week 6. When you couldn’t get considered one of this week’s scorching waiver pickups, it’s OK. Perhaps considered one of these guys on the finish of your bench may get you thru your matchup.
Brian Robinson will doubtless be the highlight of Washington’s backfield. And, rightfully so. In his debut, he out-touched Antonio Gibson, placing himself in line to steer the Commanders. Nevertheless, the third possibility of their dashing assault ought to have some PPR attraction on TNF.
J.D McKissic didn’t have a single dashing try in Week 5. Nevertheless, he was second on the group in targets in the identical recreation. His route participation has been above 50.0% over the previous three weeks. Most significantly, his targets per route run (TPRR) bounced again in Week 5.
Logan Thomas’ absence works in McKissic’s favor. Final week, the pass-catching again earned each of Wentz’s red-zone targets whereas dealing with 40.0% of the two-minute work. When McKissic is on the sphere, there’s a robust indication the group is making an attempt to get him the ball. His 28.0% TPRR leads all Washington pass-catchers by means of 5 weeks.
Once more, I’d give the nod to McKissic in PPR codecs solely. The Commanders have sufficient uncertainty of their working recreation because it stands. Nevertheless, McKissic’s function as a receiver has sufficient certainty for a FLEX play on Thursday evening.
It’s been a tough season for Darnell Mooney. Or reasonably, it will depend on the way you take a look at it. He leads his group in goal share (24.4%). His 44.2% air-yard share is probably the most of any beginning receiver within the league. Nevertheless, he has simply 21 targets on the season. Cooper Kupp had 19 appears to be like in Week 4 alone. However Washington’s secondary is weak sufficient to warrant Mooney as a viable possibility tonight.
I do know we’re in Week 5, however reminding myself a few participant’s talent stage may be useful. It turns into simpler to parse how a lot of their present scenario is on them versus their environment. Reception Notion offers us a strong start line.
Mooney has been profitable at every stage since his rookie season. His outrageous 17.8 aDOT would have you ever consider he’s solely a deep risk. However, to their credit score, the Bears teaching employees has put him in positions to succeed.
Mooney leads all Chicago receivers in slot targets and screens. Usually, they’re the high-percentage throws we would like for our pass-catchers. And but, Mooney and Fields have related on solely half of these throws. So, I can excuse most of Mooney’s lack of manufacturing. Plus, tonight’s matchup ought to be sufficient to forgive the final month of misfires.
I received’t deliver up different WR1 stat traces as proof for a strong outing from Mooney. I imply, certain — if he obtained double-digit targets, he may match DeVonta Smith’s numbers. However I’ll be sensible and give attention to the place the Bears will doubtless use Mooney.
Slot receivers have scored 4 touchdowns in 5 weeks whereas averaging 54.2 yards on 5.5 targets per recreation towards Washington. In the meantime, Washington has given up 54.8 yards per recreation on makes an attempt of 15-plus air yards. There’s been at the very least one deep reception each week. Washington’s deficiencies at every stage give Mooney a strong flooring for fantasy functions.
Even on restricted quantity, he generally is a WR3 for Week 6.